A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
